MyDD :: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold

PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold

by slb36cornell, Wed May 17, 2006 at 12:54:53 PM EST

From the diaries--Chris

Further evidence that the Philadelphia suburbs are trending blue: Andrew Dinniman won the special election in the PA 19th Senate District, becoming "the first Democratic state senator from Chester County in memory." The district is about 53% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 17% independent, but Dinniman prevailed with 56% of the vote over fellow Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele.

The 19th Senatorial seat was held by Robert J. Thompson from 1995 until his death in January, and prior to that was held by other Republicans. Chester County, where the vast majority of the district lies, is an affluent portion of the Philadelphia suburbs, and has voted heavily Republican in most local, state, and national contests since the Civil War.

I lived in the county throughout my childhood until I left for college in 1999, and have seen a continuing shift in the local political scene. Once staunchly partisan, the county is now dominated by moderates and open-minded conservatives who are pragmatic enough to vote for a good Democrat over a flawed Republican.

Winning over these moderate suburbanites will be key towards turning PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08 blue this November.

Poll

Votes: 132
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: Pennsylvania, Elections, Andrew Dinniman, Election 2006, Primary Elections (all tags)

Permalink :: 21 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (3.00 / 1)

This is my first diary, so if I did something wrong, feel free to educate me :)

by slb36cornell on Wed May 17, 2006 at 12:05:58 PM EST

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (3.00 / 2)

IIRC, Chester was the only county Bob Casey Sr lost in his landslide re-election in 1990. And yes, that includes the deep red T. So to win there is really pretty incredible. Great news!

by RamblinDave on Wed May 17, 2006 at 12:34:46 PM EST

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (3.00 / 1)

And with 170,000 registered voters, that's a huge district, too. That bodes even better for November's congressional elections, because it's harder to chalk this up to a fluke.

Simply winning state legislative seats also is a big deal because that's where the benches come from. I don't know anything about Dinniman, but if you say he's a good candidate, that's great news in that we're strengthening our bench.

John McCain

by DanM on Wed May 17, 2006 at 12:35:30 PM EST

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (3.00 / 1)

I've actually known Andy personally since I was a child (he's a family friend). He's a strong Democrat, moderate to liberal depending on the issue--his biggest strengths are in open space/environmental protection issues. He has 15 years of experience as county commissioner, and I have no idea if he aspires to higher office someday. The other good news is that this will give another local Dem a seat on the board of commissioners...both parties are legally guaranteed representation on the three-person board.

by slb36cornell on Wed May 17, 2006 at 01:01:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

Hey, that's good news, too, and Lord knows that we need some more officeholders good on environmental protection issues.

John McCain

by DanM on Wed May 17, 2006 at 01:14:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

Yes, this win was overshadowed by the ouster of the two top state senate Republicans, but it is a significant win. ChesCo is about the last of the "red" holdouts in the Phila 'burbs.

by phillydem on Wed May 17, 2006 at 12:47:12 PM EST

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

Chester county still runs around 50-55% R, 30-35% D, 15ish% I in registration.

However, it's run far closer than that in the last two presidential elections, and Lois Murphy (and before her Danial Wofford) ran extremely close campaigns for PA-6 that's around 1/3-1/2 of the county (and 1/3 of Montgomery, and part of Berks).

Last fall, in Tredyffrin (one of the republican strongholds of the Main Line == $$$$), two democrats got onto the township board. No democrat has been elected to the board before in 300 years (ok, for the first 150 there were no democrats, but you get the idea). They won 2 of 4 seats up for election. Totally unprecedented. And 2 years ago Radnor (even more Main Line $$$$) and Tredyffrin both went to Kerry - first time since the 1920's or longer that they've voted democrat.

Aichele barely won Tredyffrin - which is her hometown. She won the town by only 58 votes, and she pushed hard on the "Tredyffrin's own" angle.

Daily Local comments from readers (all republicans) - very interesting. All supported Dinniman:
http://dailylocal.com/site/news.cfm?news id=16648615&brd=1671&pag=797& ;dept_id=17782&startrow=1&maxrow s=10

by jesup on Fri May 19, 2006 at 10:18:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

Chester county gave 68% of its votes to Bush I in 1988. Since then it has become more friendly to the Democrats. Rendell even won 58% of the vote there in 2002. If the Democrats can get 40-45% of the vote there in future statewide races, then the GOP will not be in a position to carry PA. For Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery counties are voting more Democratic now.

by jiacinto on Wed May 17, 2006 at 12:54:01 PM EST

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (3.00 / 1)

What is the current Dem/Rep makeup of the PA State Senate?

by knoxvoljj on Wed May 17, 2006 at 01:13:43 PM EST

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (3.00 / 1)

after this special election, 29 Repubs / 21 Dems.

My ActBlue page

by Ament Stone of California on Wed May 17, 2006 at 01:30:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

I think it's actually 28 Repub/ 22 Dem.

by adamterando on Wed May 17, 2006 at 02:34:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

oops sorry you were right. I need to go back and learn how to count again.

by adamterando on Wed May 17, 2006 at 02:39:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

Is there anything particular about this race that would have thrown it this way other than a general local/state/national trend toward Democrats? For example, was the Democratic candidate particularly strong or have a good name locally, or the opposite for the Republican?

I just want to know how much I should think about this race when adjusting my optimism meter.

by fwiffo on Wed May 17, 2006 at 01:24:59 PM EST

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

Andy (the Dem) has been around a lot longer than his opponent, so he probably has a higher name recognition. He's also very popular locally, but from what I understand, his opponent is well-liked also.

by slb36cornell on Wed May 17, 2006 at 01:56:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

I've worked with both of them. Dinneman is an incredibly bright guy but has a slightly goofy public persona - fine in small groups but if you've ever heard him speak... But he's been a very effective minority commissioner for years - he could always cause splits between the two Repubs and end up calling a lot of shots himself. I think Chester County govt loses a lot with him moving on to the Senate.

Aichle is the least involved political leader I've ever encountered. Her background is as a bean counter and that's all I've ever sensed she cared about. She's not a good public speaker, mostly due to lack of anything to say. She asks staff to provide her with policy positions, rather than to help her develop her own positions or help her implement or sell her own positions. There's just not much 'there' there. Her husband's a really influential attorney and a great guy, btw, and I think he's pretty much pulled the strings of her political career to give her something to do. Cold to say, but I think it's true.

-Longtime Observer

by ramboorider on Thu May 18, 2006 at 07:22:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (3.00 / 1)

Chester County is changing (I've lived here 30 of my 54 years). It used to be dominated by old money, with huge horse farms and fox hunts. In recent decades it has become more suburban as many farms get converted into housing developments. It is still very Republican, but I think the long-term trends favor the "soccer mom" swing vote over either party.

In the shorter term, I have never heard very much about either Dinniman or Aichele.

In other PA news, it looks like Casey got 57% of the vote in the US Senate primary. Almost two million votes were cast.

I don't pay much attention to primaries, but both those numbers seem pretty remarkable to me. Sandals and Pennachio were almost completely unknown, and Casey is the biggest of names in PA politics. Also, having 5% of the total population of the state vote in a Democratic primary seems like a lot. Does anyone have an idea if that is normal?

by shargash on Wed May 17, 2006 at 01:44:20 PM EST

Re: no draws (none / 0)

There were no big draws statewide. Rendell ran unopposed for guv as did Swann and Matthews (ltgov) and Santorum. Everyone knew Casey was going to win easily and the contested D ltgov race drew little statewide interest. Outrage over the "pay raise" in the SE has pretty much faded and was never as strong as it was in the south central and SW parts of the state to begin with.

IMO, the only thing really to drive turnout was the special election to fill Thompson's seat.

by phillydem on Wed May 17, 2006 at 01:49:04 PM EST

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

Hmmm....I'm getting different numbers for Casey. News stories were reporting Casey in the 80s. But this site has a very different story with 99% of precincts reporting.

by shargash on Wed May 17, 2006 at 01:49:35 PM EST

Casey numbers statewide (none / 0)

From the Pennsylvania Dept of State:

CASEY, BOB JR (DEM) 613,890
SANDALS, ALAN (DEM) 47,562
PENNACCHIO, CHUCK (DEM) 65,199

98% reporting. NBC10 has it wrong, I think.

by steppy on Wed May 17, 2006 at 02:06:56 PM EST

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

I was tracking the results last night. Casey was pulling 85-86 percent extremely consistently.

by InigoMontoya on Wed May 17, 2006 at 03:18:18 PM EST

Re: PA Dem Wins Special Election in GOP Stronghold (none / 0)

Great News on the State Senate. I have noticed that across the country in Special Elections for US House and State Legislature the Democrats are out performing their previous results between 10% and 20%. If this holds for November will we ever be a happy bunch of campers!

by politics64 on Thu May 18, 2006 at 08:50:21 AM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.